Bangladesh: Gen Z Toppled an Autocrat – Why Are Old Guard Tipped to Win the Election?

Bangladesh's Unfinished Revolution: Why The Old Guard Might Win After Gen Z Toppled An Autocrat

The echoes of the July 2024 uprising in Bangladesh still reverberate, particularly for Rahat Hossain, a 24-year-old whose life was irrevocably altered. What began as student-led demonstrations escalated into a nationwide revolution, ultimately ousting the country’s long-serving Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina. Yet, as the nation prepares for critical general elections next week, a profound question hangs in the air:Bangladesh: Gen Z toppled an autocrat - so why are old guard tipped to win election?The initial promise of a youth-led future now contends with the resurgence of established political forces, threatening to redefine the revolution’s legacy.

Hossain’s harrowing experience encapsulates the brutal realities of that tumultuous period. Amidst a violent crackdown in Dhaka, he witnessed his 19-year-old friend, Emam Hasan Taim Bhuiyan, shot by police. Viral footage captured Hossain’s desperate, bullet-ridden attempt to drag his friend to safety – a valiant effort ultimately thwarted by a bullet to his own leg and the relentless police fire that left Bhuiyan fatally wounded. This personal tragedy, multiplied by hundreds across the nation, fueled a mass movement that swept Sheikh Hasina's government from power within a fortnight, forcing her to flee the country. The United Nations estimates up to 1,400 lives were lost, predominantly due to the state’s security forces.

The Fading Promise of a New Generation in Bangladesh

The July uprising was heralded as a beacon of Gen Z activism, a successful modern revolution. Initially, student leaders, once on the streets, found themselves in key roles within an interim government, tasked with shaping the 'beautiful Bangladesh' they envisioned – a nation founded on peace, equality, justice, and fairness. This shift was meant to dismantle decades of dynastic rule by the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

However, the idealism quickly encountered political realities. Hossain, along with many others, feels disillusioned. The newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP), largely led by students, is perceived as inexperienced. Asif Mahmud, 27, chairman of the NCP’s Election Committee, concedes, “We were hoping to do a lot better.” He acknowledges the immense challenge of breaking the two-party dominance that has defined Bangladesh for half a century.

The Unexpected Resurgence of Established Parties

Into this vacuum, older, more established parties are gaining unexpected traction. One such entity is Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party with a controversial past. Despite its historical baggage from the 1971 war of independence, which included accusations of collaborating with West Pakistan, Jamaat has successfully rebranded. Professor Tawfique Haque of North South University notes that younger voters, born well after 1971, are often unburdened by this history, viewing Jamaat instead as a fellow victim of Hasina’s authoritarian rule. Rahat Hossain, for one, believes Jamaat has modernized and supported the student uprising.

This shift is not anecdotal. Jamaat-backed candidates achieved a landslide victory in university student elections last September, including a historic win at Dhaka University, signaling a broader national mood swing. In a strategic move, the NCP, acknowledging its need for grassroots support, formed an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami in December, despite ideological differences. This alliance, however, comes with significant compromises.

Women's Voices Sidelined in the Political Arena

A glaring issue within this new political landscape is the marginalization of women. Despite their instrumental role in leading the uprising, their representation in the upcoming elections is starkly low. Of the 30 candidates the NCP is fielding through its alliance with Jamaat, only two are women. Jamaat itself is fielding over 200 candidates, all men. Senior female members of the NCP, like Tasnim Jara and Shima Akhter, have resigned in protest, labeling this compromise a “moral red line.”

Shima Akhter, 25, a prominent student activist, decries the continued male domination within the interim government and the subsequent political structures. “Where are the women?” she asks. She recounts the social media targeting, slut-shaming, and harassment female activists faced post-uprising, dismisses claims of “social structure” as patriarchal excuses, and now leans towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which, though fielding only 10 women out of over 250 candidates, is perceived as a marginally better option.

The BNP's Strategic Comeback

The BNP, having faced severe repression under Awami League rule, is strategically positioning itself as a liberal democratic force. Its leader, Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, returned from self-imposed exile post-uprising, benefiting from the collapse of corruption charges. He criticizes Jamaat’s use of religious sentiment and promises economic, democratic reforms, and a “rainbow nation” through a new National Reconciliation Commission.

The Awami League, now banned, is not silent. Its leaders, many in exile or under arrest, denounce the election as unfair. A district leader in hiding warned the BBC that the party and its supporters would “resist” the elections if Sheikh Hasina commanded it, dismissing accusations of human rights abuses during their rule as “false and fabricated.”

An Uncertain Future for Bangladesh's Revolution

As the elections approach, the future of Bangladesh remains deeply uncertain. Rahat Hossain still awaits justice for his friend, Emam, reflecting on the day police brutally took his life. He watched the viral footage, hearing his own screams, crying endlessly. While he celebrated the first anniversary of Hasina’s ousting, his vision of a 'new Bangladesh' remains elusive, dependent, he believes, on a truly reformed elected government.

The youthful zeal that ignited a revolution now confronts the entrenched power dynamics of Bangladesh’s political history. Will the Gen Z uprising ultimately pave the way for genuine progressive change, or will the familiar faces of the old guard reclaim control, leaving the dreams of a 'beautiful Bangladesh' yet to be fully realized?