DR Congo-Rwanda Peace Process: Can Trump's Shattered Plan Be Glued Back Together?

DR Congo-Rwanda Peace Process: Can Trump's Shattered Plan Be Glued Back Together?

Just over a week ago, a landmark peace deal was celebrated in Washington, heralded by then-US President Donald Trump as "historic" and a beacon of hope for Africa's Great Lakes region. This agreement aimed to resolve decades of simmering conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and Rwanda, with Presidents Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame as signatories. Yet, almost immediately, this carefully constructed peace began to unravel.

The US Ambassador to the UN recently leveled a stark accusation: Rwanda is actively pushing the region towards war, not peace. This alarming statement comes amidst a fresh offensive by the M23 rebel group, which claims to have seized the strategically vital city of Uvira. International powers, including the US and European nations, assert that Rwanda supports this renewed M23 aggression, a claim Rwanda vehemently denies despite a tacit acknowledgment of its influence by its presence at the Washington talks.

The Swift Unraveling of a "Historic" Accord

The ink was barely dry on the Washington agreement when the M23 launched its offensive. This crucial rebel group, notably absent from Trump's deal, has been pursuing a separate peace track spearheaded by US ally Qatar. The timing, according to Professor Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist specializing in the region, suggests the M23 seeks "more leverage in negotiations," while Rwanda expresses deep mistrust in President Tshisekedi.

The assault on Uvira, located in South Kivu province, directly undermines all ongoing diplomatic efforts. Prof. Stearns notes it "appears to humiliate the US government," questioning its strategic rationale. This military surge occurred just days before Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi flew to Washington to formally ratify the agreement, initially brokered in June, casting a long shadow over the proceedings.

Uvira's Strategic Importance: A Regional Chessboard

The capture of Uvira carries significant weight, profoundly impacting regional dynamics. Bram Verelst, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), explains that the move appears calculated to compel Burundi to withdraw its substantial military presence from eastern DR Congo, where Burundian troops support the Congolese army against rebel factions and Rwanda.

Uvira, merely 27km (17 miles) from Burundi's capital, Bujumbura, on the northern tip of Lake Tanganyika, serves as Burundi's critical "gateway" into eastern DR Congo for troop deployment and supply lines. With an estimated 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu, its fall effectively severs this vital conduit. While some Burundian troops are reportedly withdrawing, the full extent remains uncertain.

Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, highlights Uvira's role as the DR Congo government's last major military stronghold in South Kivu, home to approximately 700,000 people. He anticipates the M23 will establish a parallel administration, leveraging its territorial gains as a potent "bargaining chip" in future peace discussions.

Burundi's Deep-Seated Concerns and Regional Tensions

Burundi has historically been a natural ally to DR Congo, primarily due to its long-standing animosity with Rwanda. Both nations accuse each other of backing rebel groups aimed at destabilizing their respective governments. Sharing linguistic and ethnic ties (predominantly Tutsi and Hutu communities), both have endured tragic ethnic-based massacres. However, unlike Rwanda, led by a Tutsi president, Burundi's government is dominated by the Hutu majority.

Burundi's apprehension is palpable: should the M23 consolidate its control in South Kivu, it could significantly empower Red Tabara, a Burundian rebel group based in the same region, mainly composed of Tutsis, which has previously launched attacks within Burundi. In an attempt to allay these fears, the M23 stated its objectives "no sights beyond our national borders," claiming its fight is for "peace, protection of the population, rebuilding of the state in DR Congo, as well as the stability of the Great Lakes region."

In response to the escalating crisis, Burundi has closed its border with DR Congo, though allowing individuals to cross after rigorous security checks. Aid agencies report that approximately 50,000 people have fled into Burundi over the past week. Despite efforts by Burundian and Congolese forces, Uvira reportedly fell "without much fighting," exacerbating Burundi's already struggling economy, heavily reliant on eastern DR Congo for essential foreign currency and fuel.

The M23's Military Might and Rwanda's Suspected Hand

The M23's current offensive follows significant advances earlier this year, including the capture of Goma, the capital of North Kivu, and later Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu. Prof. Stearns estimates the M23 boasts over 10,000 fighters, suggesting a probable "influx" of Rwandan troops supported the recent Uvira offensive. He attributes their success to the "very disciplined" nature of the Rwandan army, arguing that "discipline matters more than manpower." Moreover, recent fighting has seen extensive use of drone technology, with Rwanda seemingly leveraging it to a greater advantage than DR Congo.

Diplomacy in Disarray: International Reactions and Blame Games

The international community's frustration is evident. The US ambassador to the UN directly implicated Rwanda, stating, "Instead of progress toward peace... Rwanda is leading the region toward more instability and toward war." A joint statement from the US, EU, and eight European governments went further, demanding an immediate halt to "offensive operations" by both the M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), and a withdrawal of Rwandan troops from eastern DR Congo.

Prof. Stearns finds the timing of the Uvira assault particularly perplexing. "It was literally as they were signing a peace deal in Washington that Rwandan troops were amassing, and then invaded the area around Kamanyola... and then advanced on Uvira," he recounts.

Rwanda's foreign ministry has refrained from commenting on claims of its troop presence in South Kivu but attributes ceasefire violations to the DR Congo and Burundian armies, accusing them of bombing border villages and asserting Burundi had "amassed" nearly 20,000 troops in South Kivu. Rwanda contends that DR Congo was "never ready to commit to peace" and that President Tshisekedi was seemingly "forced to sign" the Washington accord. The DR Congo government, in turn, accuses President Kagame of a "deliberate choice" to abandon the accord and undermine Trump's peace efforts.

A Troubled Path Forward for the DR Congo-Rwanda Peace Process

The US-led DR Congo-Rwanda peace process now faces a "troubled path, perhaps it is stuck," according to Prof. Stearns. Its success largely depended on DR Congo's army disarming the FDLR militia, a group involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide and still perceived as a threat by Kigali. However, a significant operation by the Congolese army for this purpose seems unlikely given the current climate.

Economic cooperation, including hydroelectric power, mining, and infrastructure development, was another key pillar of the deal, envisioned to open doors for increased American investment in the mineral-rich region. Prof. Stearns sees this as equally improbable while Rwandan troops remain and conflict persists. Even the parallel peace process in Doha, brokered by Qatar between the M23 and DR Congo's government, is currently on hold. "It's very difficult to imagine the Congolese returning there right now after there has been this major offensive by the M23," he concludes.

President Tshisekedi is under "very serious" public pressure over his unfulfilled promises to end the eastern conflict, and potentially from a strained military leadership. He is now reportedly relying on the US to pressure Rwanda to withdraw its alleged support for the M23. With the Congolese army facing immense challenges to mount a response, the fate of peace rests largely in the hands of international mediators – particularly the US, Qatar, and other donors. The question remains how much political will and capital they are willing to expend to truly end this complex conflict.