Unpacking the Future: Just What Are Israel's Long-Term Plans for Gaza?

Unraveling the 'Ceasefire': A Shifting Reality in Gaza

Despite declarations of a ceasefire, persistent reports and official statements suggest that Israel's intentions for Gaza remain complex and contentious. The notion of a settled future for the territory, particularly following the supposed implementation of United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan in October 2025, appears increasingly distant.

The original agreement stipulated an Israeli withdrawal behind a designated “Yellow Line,” granting them control over 58 percent of the territory, with a complete withdrawal slated for a later, unspecified date. However, this withdrawal has not materialized. Instead, in the months succeeding the so-called ceasefire, an unsettling pattern has emerged: Israel has reportedly expanded its presence in Gaza by approximately 11 percent, alongside near-daily strikes that have claimed the lives of at least 922 people within the enclave.

Further compounding this, satellite imagery from March reveals the establishment of at least 32 new military outposts, a ground barrier, and significant infrastructure along what was intended to be a temporary boundary line. These developments paint a picture of entrenchment rather than disengagement.

Humanitarian Crisis and Territorial Expansion

The humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated sharply, with numerous agencies, including Oxfam, accusing Israel of exacerbating the crisis since October of last year. Restrictions on the delivery of vital aid and essential goods have severely impacted the population.

Adding to these concerns, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently indicated further territorial ambitions. Speaking at a conference, Netanyahu stated, “We are currently squeezing Hamas; we now control 60 percent of the territory of the Strip – you know this. We were at 50. My directive is to move to…” His pause was notably punctuated by a crowd member shouting “100!” To this, Netanyahu responded, “Let’s go step by step. First of all, 70. Let’s start with that. We’re pressing them from all sides, we’ll deal with the remnants.” This statement clearly raises questions aboutjust what are Israel’s long-term plans for Gaza?

Legal Ramifications of Territorial Acquisition

The implications of such territorial expansion are profound, particularly under international law. Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin, emphasized to Al Jazeera that “If Israel’s ultimate plan is to exercise permanent effective control over the entirety of the Gaza Strip, we are talking about unlawful annexation.”

Becker underscored that annexation violates a fundamental principle of international law: the prohibition of acquiring territory by force. This principle was reaffirmed by the International Court of Justice in a 2024 advisory opinion. Despite these clear legal frameworks, since the onset of its war on Gaza in October 2023, Israeli forces have been responsible for the deaths of at least 72,819 men, women, and children, with thousands more presumed buried under rubble. By 2025, a confirmed famine gripped the enclave, and much of the life-sustaining infrastructure has been decimated. Worryingly, these actions have unfolded without significant international sanctions, and Israel continues to participate in global sporting and entertainment events, often despite public protests.

Global Inaction and the Shadow of 'Voluntary Emigration'

Hopes for the United States to enforce its own conditions on Israel have largely gone unfulfilled. Following the announcement of a ceasefire in October last year, the US has remained largely unresponsive as Israel expanded and solidified its presence in Gaza, effectively cutting off access to approximately two-thirds of the enclave for its inhabitants by April 2026. A US State Department spokesperson, when contacted by Al Jazeera, sidestepped questions about Israel's ceasefire violations, instead attributing responsibility for obstructing peace and reconstruction to Hamas.

The humanitarian outlook for Gaza’s remaining population, subsisting in an ever-shrinking space, is a source of deep concern for agencies like the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Israel’s proposed solution to this demographic pressure is disquieting. Defence Minister Israel Katz, in a statement marking the killing of Hamas leader Mohammed Odeh, declared, “The plan for voluntary emigration from Gaza will also be implemented, all at the proper time and in the proper manner.”

The term “voluntary emigration” has been echoed by several Israeli government ministers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Observers widely interpret this phrasing as a euphemism for the ethnic cleansing of the enclave – a forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, which Professor Becker warns “would also violate the fundamental right to self-determination of the Palestinian people,” a cornerstone of the UN Charter.

What's Next for Gaza? Shifting International Focus

Despite the gravity of the situation, international attention appears to be shifting. Becker notes that the focus has largely moved from Gaza to the US and Israel's war on Iran, as well as Israel’s actions in Lebanon. “While the Trump administration may be willing to diverge from Israel’s interests in seeking a resolution to the disastrous and illegal war that the United States started against Iran, the United States seems to have lost interest in Gaza or pushing for restraint on the part of Netanyahu’s government,” he explained. The role of the so-called 'Board of Peace' in securing a future for Palestinians in Gaza remains deeply uncertain.

As these events unfold, the crucial question persists:Just what are Israel’s long-term plans for Gaza?The answers, gleaned from official statements, military actions, and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, suggest a future vastly different from any negotiated peace, prompting serious concerns about international law, human rights, and regional stability.