A Marriage of Three: Will Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso Bloc Reshape the Sahel?

In a region long characterized by complex geopolitical currents, a significant new power bloc has emerged: the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, this new triumvirate represents a bold reorientation of West African politics, following their dramatic withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This strategic move has culminated in the inauguration of a new bank, a dedicated television station, and a joint military force, signaling a decisive break from previous regional frameworks and international partnerships.

The Sahel's Shifting Sands: A New Alliance Emerges

Our journey to Bamako, Mali, in late December, offered a firsthand glimpse into the heart of this unfolding regional transformation. Arriving from Dakar, Senegal, the vast expanse of the Sahel below our Air Burkina flight served as a stark reminder of the political turbulence and escalating armed violence that has destabilized this critical African region for years. The welcome in Bamako was cordial yet underscored by an undeniable sense of official oversight – a subtle indicator of the new government's vigilant posture.

Mali, in particular, stands at a pivotal crossroads. Following two military coups in 2020 and 2021, the nation decisively severed ties with its former colonial power, France, expelled French military forces, and initiated the departure of the United Nations peacekeeping mission. These actions paved the way for a radical re-evaluation of its international allegiances.

Alongside Burkina Faso and Niger, both now under military governance and reportedly supported by Russian security contractors, Mali co-founded theAlliance of Sahel States (AES)in September 2023. This formidable regional grouping subsequently withdrew from the broader ECOWAS bloc, publicly asserting that the larger community had succumbed to foreign influences rather than prioritizing African interests.

The Bamako Confederal Summit: Laying Foundations for Sovereignty

This month, leaders from the three AES nations converged in Bamako for their second Confederal Summit of Heads of State. The event marked a significant symbolic and practical milestone, a public display of unity and ambition. More than just a ceremonial gathering, the summit was a platform for tangible announcements and achievements rather than just signing new agreements.

Key among these declarations were three pivotal initiatives:

Beneath the Surface: The Persistent Threat of Armed Groups

Yet, the urgency behind these announcements became palpable beyond the summit's official proceedings. The complex and fractured landscape of the Sahel has inadvertently created fertile ground for the expansion of various armed organizations. Groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, have exploited areas of weak state presence and long-standing grievances, expanding their reach from rural Mali into neighboring countries and even reaching the coastal regions of Benin.

From the skies above Bamako, the sprawling earth below evokes a unsettling question: how much of this territory is now under the clandestine influence of such extremist factions? On the ground, the reality of this threat quickly became evident. Despite the vibrant chaos of Bamako's streets – motorbikes weaving, hawkers selling, Malian pop blaring – an underlying tension was discernible. Since September, armed groups have reportedly imposed blockades around the capital, impacting essential supplies like fuel and goods. Long queues at petrol stations, where patience seemed to have replaced anger, hinted at a city persevering under duress. Whispers of unofficial agreements between authorities and militants, aimed simply at keeping the city functioning, further complicate the narrative of a clear-cut conflict.

Winning Hearts and Minds: Public Perception in Bamako

Our journey through Bamako also led us to Sahel Alliance Square, a newly inaugurated public space commemorating the union of the three nations. Amidst the city's bustling life, where Malian forces occasionally sped past, presumably towards ever-nearing front lines against JNIM checkpoints disrupting trade routes, Bamako maintains an air of normalcy. The war, for many residents, often feels like a distant reality, despite coordinated attacks in September 2024 hitting military installations and neighborhoods within the capital itself.

At the square, hundreds of young people gathered, drawn by music, trivia, and the promise of small prizes. The questions were simple, yet strategically designed: identify the AES countries, name their leaders. Children eagerly received microphones, their voices reciting the names: Abdourahamane Tchiani of Niger, Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso, Assimi Goita of Mali. These names, repeated incessantly, were clearly being etched into the collective consciousness. Winners proudly sported T-shirts emblazoned with the faces of the three military leaders, a clear indication of a concerted effort to cultivate loyalty and a shared identity among the youth. As 12-year-old Moussa Niare confidently articulated, clutching his prize, "They've gathered together to become one country, to hold each other's hand, and to fight a common enemy." This sentiment underscores the effectiveness of the government's public outreach in selling thismarriage of threeto its populace.

Shared Trajectories: How Three Coups Forged a Unified Front

While Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger embarked on distinct political transitions, the pathways that culminated in their shared alliance exhibit striking similarities. Between 2020 and 2023, each nation witnessed the removal of its democratically elected leadership by military forces, with these takeovers consistently framed as essential interventions.

What began as separate military interventions has since evolved into a cohesive political project, formalised through the AES. The Bamako summit served to further solidify and give tangible shape to this nascent union.

Looking Ahead: The Future of the Sahel Bloc

One of the most significant outcomes of the AES summit was the formal announcement of a joint military battalion. This initiative comes after months of intensifying violence, with regional armies, reportedly aided by Russian mercenaries, engaged in prolonged counter-insurgency operations against armed groups that have plagued the region for over a decade. The formation of this unified military capability is a critical step, but it also raises profound questions about regional security dynamics and international partnerships.

The core question remains:Will Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso bloc reshape the Sahel?The AES represents a bold, self-determined attempt by these nations to assert their sovereignty, redefine their alliances, and confront their existential security threats on their own terms. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges, from internal governance issues and economic instability to the enduring threat of militant groups and the complexities of regional diplomacy. The world watches keenly as this new alliance endeavors to forge a destiny independent of past influences, hoping to usher in an era of stability and prosperity in a region desperately in need of both.