NFL Week 17 Thrills: How the Titans' Win Reshaped the No. 1 Draft Pick Race

Titans' Upset Victory: A Win for Momentum, a Loss for Draft Positioning

NFL Week 17 delivered its share of surprises, but few had as profound an impact on the upcoming draft as the Tennessee Titans' unexpected triumph. In a stunning 26-9 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Titans not only broke their winless home streak but also significantly reshaped the top of the 2024 NFL Draft board. While the win undoubtedly injects some late-season momentum into the franchise, it effectively eliminated them from the covetedrace to the No. 1 pick, turning it into a compelling four-team contest.

Tennessee, now standing at 3-12, has secured two wins in its last three outings. However, this late surge comes at a strategic cost. Despite their challenging record, the Titans' strength of schedule is considerably higher than other teams with similar win totals. This crucial tie-breaker mechanism means even losing their final two games wouldn't guarantee them the top selection, with their odds plummeting to less than 1 percent. Furthermore, their chances of a top-five pick have dipped below 50 percent.

Meanwhile, the struggling Chiefs, dealing with a spiraling season and a significant backup quarterback injury (just a week after their starter suffered a torn ACL), suddenly find themselves unexpectedly within reach of a top-10 pick. Projections suggest around a 52 percent chance of landing at No. 10 overall, a stark contrast to their usual playoff aspirations.

Decoding the NFL Draft's Complex Top Pick Scenarios

The projected draft order is a fluid landscape, influenced by advanced simulation models that factor in expected season finishes rather than just current standings. While the Arizona Cardinals are still technically in the mix for a top selection, their high strength of schedule makes winning tie-breakers unlikely, though they maintain roughly a 73 percent chance for a top-five pick.

The Four-Team Scramble: Who Leads the Race for the No. 1 Pick?

Following a dramatic Week 16, four teams have emerged as the primary contenders vying for the top spot. Their remaining schedules and direct matchups will be pivotal in determining who ultimately secures the first overall selection.

Las Vegas Raiders: High Stakes in the Desert

After being shut out the previous week, the Las Vegas Raiders showed resilience in Week 16, narrowly losing 23-21 to the Houston Texans. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty impressed with two explosive touchdowns exceeding 50 yards each. The Raiders currently hold the best odds for the No. 1 pick, though those odds are now nearly even with the New York Giants.

Their upcoming Week 17 clash against the Giants is monumental. A loss would bolster their No. 1 pick odds to approximately 62 percent, while a win would drastically reduce them to around 4 percent. Adding intrigue, their Week 18 matchup against a Chiefs team depleted by quarterback injuries could prove a dangerous obstacle for fans hoping to secure the top selection.

Remaining Schedule:vs. New York Giants, vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants: A Crucial Showdown Awaits

The New York Giants' nine-game losing streak continued in Week 16 with a 16-13 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. This result significantly boosted their odds for the No. 1 pick, placing them neck and neck with the Raiders. The Giants' offense, led by rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, struggled immensely, posting a season-low 141 total yards.

With Brian Daboll's recent departure, a top pick would offer a much-needed reset for the franchise. The Week 17 encounter in Las Vegas is critical: a Giants loss could propel their No. 1 pick odds to about 67 percent, whereas a win would see them plummet below 1 percent. Their path to the top selection appears clear: drop the remaining two games.

Remaining Schedule:at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Dallas Cowboys

New York Jets: Defensive Gains, Offensive Woes

The New York Jets showed defensive improvements in Week 16, halting their streak of allowing over 30 points in their 29-6 loss to the New Orleans Saints. However, their offensive struggles persisted. While their odds for the top pick saw a slight increase after the game, they still rank last among the primary contenders.

Remaining Schedule:vs. New England Patriots, at Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns: A Long Shot with Specific Conditions

The Cleveland Browns' 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 was not their worst performance, but ongoing offensive inconsistencies and a season-ending injury to rookie running back Quinshon Judkins (dislocated ankle, fractured fibula) further complicate their outlook. This loss marginally increased their No. 1 pick odds by about 12 percent.

The Browns' path to the top selection is narrow and requires a specific set of circumstances: they would need to lose their final two games, while both the Giants and Raiders would each have to secure one win. In such a scenario, Cleveland is projected to earn the No. 1 pick through the strength of schedule tie-breaker.

Remaining Schedule:vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cincinnati Bengals