Understanding Pakistan's Strategy After Afghanistan Bombing as India-Taliban Relations Grow

A recent escalation of cross-border hostilities saw Pakistani air raids shatter a tenuous ceasefire with Afghanistan, igniting a fresh wave of regional instability. This decisive military action came after weeks of relentless violence inside Pakistan, prompting Islamabad to retaliate against what it describes as militant hideouts in Afghan border regions. The situation is further complicated by a growing diplomatic alignment between India and the Taliban, adding new dimensions to Pakistan's strategic calculus.

Escalating Tensions: A Violent Precursor

The Pakistani military's weekend air operations followed a brutal period of internal security challenges. Early February saw a devastating suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in Islamabad, claiming at least 36 lives and injuring 170. Days later, an explosives-laden vehicle struck a security post in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child, with authorities identifying the attacker as an Afghan national. Following this, Pakistan issued a demarche to the Taliban on February 19. Yet, merely two days later, another suicide attack in Bannu claimed the lives of two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel.

These persistent attacks pushed Pakistan's patience to its breaking point, culminating in Sunday’s military strikes targeting alleged “camps and hideouts” in Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Paktika provinces. Islamabad claimed the intelligence-based air strikes neutralized at least “80 militants” from the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) and its affiliates across seven camps.

Pakistan Strikes Back: Claims and Counter-Claims

While Pakistan asserted its actions targeted militant infrastructure, Kabul vehemently rejected these claims. The Afghan Ministry of Defence stated the strikes hit civilian areas, including a religious school and residential homes, causing dozens of casualties, including women and children. Afghan sources reported at least 17 deaths in Nangarhar alone, prompting Kabul to vow a “measured and appropriate response.”

The India Factor: A New Dynamic in Regional Diplomacy

Adding another layer of complexity to this volatile situation, India swiftly condemned Pakistan’s military actions on Sunday, asserting its support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal, stated, “India strongly condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan.” He further criticized the move as “another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures.”

This statement highlights Islamabad's growing unease with New Delhi’s strengthening engagement with the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. This emerging partnership between two nations Pakistan has frequently blamed for its domestic security turmoil introduces a significant geopolitical dimension. The complex interplay prompts a critical question:Afghanistan bombing: What’s Pakistan’s strategy as India-Taliban ties grow?Pakistan's information ministry, in a Sunday statement, reiterated its “conclusive evidence” that recent attacks on its soil originated from Afghanistan-based leadership and handlers, urging Kabul to take verifiable steps to curb armed groups.

The Demise of a Fragile Ceasefire

The recent Pakistani attacks effectively dismantled a delicate ceasefire, previously brokered by Qatar and Turkiye through talks in October and November. These earlier discussions, following deadly border clashes, had failed to yield a formal peace agreement, leaving the frontier’s calm inherently precarious. Despite Afghanistan's Taliban government consistently denying allegations of supporting groups hostile to Pakistan, warnings from Islamabad had been mounting since last October. Pakistani military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry had previously cautioned that Islamabad's patience was wearing thin, citing Afghanistan’s use as a base for operations against Pakistan.

Expert Perspectives: A Strategic Dilemma

Abdul Basit, a scholar specializing in political violence and terrorism, confirmed that Pakistan’s recent actions signal the collapse of the temporary ceasefire. Basit, while acknowledging Pakistan's predicament, questioned the long-term efficacy of the bombings. “The more Pakistan will strike in Afghanistan, the more Kabul and TTP will come closer,” he observed. However, he also recognized Pakistan's difficult position, stating that Islamabad is “left between bad and worse options” after sustaining significant personnel losses. Indeed, the Pak Institute for Peace Studies reported 2023 as one of the deadliest years in nearly a decade for Pakistan, with a 34 percent surge in attacks nationwide.

Outlook: A Region on Edge

The ongoing violence and Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes underscore a deeply fractured regional security landscape. With a fragile peace shattered and the complexities of growing India-Taliban relations looming, the strategic decisions made in Islamabad will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for stability across South Asia.