Thailand Election: Why Winning the Vote is Only the First Hurdle for the Popular People's Party

The Rise of Thailand's People's Party: A New Wave of Political Engagement

In the vibrant landscape of Thai politics, figures like Suttasitt "Macky" Pottasak embody a fresh generation of political hopefuls. Young, driven, and brimming with idealism, Macky represents the People's Party, a movement capturing the imagination of many. He traded a career in Bangkok's TV drama scene to contest a rural seat near his hometown of Nakhon Ratchasima, unseating a long-established political dynasty.

Macky's unique campaigning style, featuring the iconic hat and flag of Luffy from the anime series One Piece—a symbol seen in recent Asian youth protests—has resonated widely. His daily, light-hearted videos explaining party policies are racking up millions of views on social media. "Politics is something past generations made boring. I want to make it fun," he declares. "That's why I brought in Luffy and my video mini-series. We don't have money to buy votes. We are just ordinary citizens, but with a strong determination to solve the long-standing problems. I think the villagers can see that."

Opinion polls affirm this sentiment, consistently placing the People's Party ahead of its rivals as the upcoming Sunday election draws near.

Beyond the Ballot Box: The Enduring Challenges of Thai Politics

Yet, in Thailand, electoral victory is often just the beginning. The nation's recent political history is a testament to this reality. Less than three years ago, the progressive Move Forward party secured a surprise win on a platform of sweeping political and economic reforms. Their agenda included holding Thailand's powerful military and major businesses more accountable, alongside reducing the severe penalties under the controversial lese-majeste law.

However, formidable conservative forces—particularly the unelected senate and the constitutional court—swiftly moved to block Move Forward. The party was dissolved, and its leaders banned from politics, with the court ruling their lese-majeste proposals constituted an attempt to overthrow the entire political system. This pivotal moment underscores a crucial truth about theThailand election: for the popular People's Party, winning the vote is only the first hurdle.

After three turbulent years marked by short-lived coalition governments, two prime ministerial removals by the constitutional court, and even a border conflict with Cambodia, the reformist movement is back. Rebranded as the People's Party, their youthful energy and idealistic vision continue to draw large, enthusiastic crowds. At a Nakhon Ratchasima rally, their new leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, a 38-year-old former software engineer, was mobbed like a rock star, greeted with garlands and requests for selfies.

Ground-Level Realities: Economic Strain and Community Needs

Macky's campaign tours, conducted on e-scooters with two assistants through irrigation canals, rice fields, and simple wooden houses of northeastern Thai villages, offer a window into a society under severe economic stress. The old engines of growth, residents explain, have faltered.

Village head La-or Kohsantea laments the scarcity of decent local jobs, forcing young people to migrate for work. "No one has helped us with the problem of poverty," she states. Thailand grapples with one of Asia's highest household debt levels, and its GDP growth, under 2% annually, significantly lags behind neighboring countries.

Kritsana Lohsantea, 28, exemplifies these struggles, seeking Macky's help for a modest social security payment as his electronics factory prepares to close. Many young rural Thais, like Kritsana, left school early with few qualifications. The low-skilled manufacturing jobs that once propelled Thailand's rapid growth decades ago are now migrating to more cost-effective locations such as Vietnam.

Macky has also observed the growing elderly population. Thailand's birth rate fell by an alarming 10% last year—the highest rate globally—and the national population has been declining for five years. To address the exodus of young people and the needs of the elderly, Macky proposes local training initiatives and an improved online system for caregivers to support house-bound seniors without nearby family.

A Transformative Vision vs. Populist Promises

The People's Party distinguishes itself with an ambitious agenda for national transformation. Their top priority is amending the military-drafted constitution, which vests significant power in unelected bodies like the constitutional court, allowing them to constrain elected governments. The party also aims to streamline bureaucracy, modernize the education system, and curb the influence of the military and large corporations. A referendum on constitutional amendment is planned concurrently with the election.

In stark contrast, their main rivals—Bhumjaithai, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, and Pheu Thai, associated with former premier Thaksin Shinawatra—are largely focusing on more immediately gratifying policies.

Anutin emphasizes his nationalist credentials, highlighting his firm stance against Cambodia in the border conflict and his support for the military. "I promise you I will protect our soil with my life," he declared at a Bangkok rally. "If you want a prime minister the enemy cannot intimidate, choose my party." His party has also bolstered its ranks by attracting defecting MPs and competent technocrats, consolidating its position as a leading conservative force.

Pheu Thai, known for its populist past, has pledged to create nine new Thai baht millionaires daily through a national prize draw. Both parties are offering subsidies and cash handouts, but many economists argue these short-term fixes fail to address Thailand's deep-seated structural issues.

"This is barking up the wrong tree," states Apichat Satitniramai, an economics professor at Thammasat University. "These stimulus packages are like painkillers, which are less effective the more we use them." He believes the People's Party is the only one considering long-term solutions, rather than solely focusing on winning the election.

The Unyielding Battle Against the Status Quo

From its inception in 2017 as Future Forward, under the charismatic entrepreneur Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the party was perceived as a threat by powerful conservative figures. During military rule, the then-army chief likened it to a communist insurgency. Some worried Thanathorn's call for comprehensive reform might eventually encompass the monarchy, which conservatives deem untouchable.

Following Future Forward's surprisingly strong showing in the 2019 election, the constitutional court—which had previously disqualified other parties seen as threats—barred Thanathorn from political office for a decade over his ownership of shares in a small publishing company, deemed a violation of rules against politicians controlling news media.

The party's dissolution by the court the following year sparked widespread student protests, lasting months and, for the first time, openly calling for monarchical reform. By the 2023 election, public hunger for change intensified, leading to the successor party, Move Forward's, unexpected victory, inevitably followed by its dissolution.

The Road Ahead: Enduring Hurdles for the People's Party

All eyes are on the outcome of this weekend's vote. If, as polls suggest, the People's Party secures even more seats than last time, it will significantly outpace its closest rival. However, no party is projected to win an overall majority in the 500-seat parliament. Crucially, this time, the senate no longer participates in selecting the next government.

Despite this, many in Thailand anticipate further attempts to obstruct the People's Party. A case has already been filed against 44 of its leading figures, including 15 parliamentary candidates, with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, concerning their endorsement of the lese-majeste proposals. This could potentially lead to their disqualification from politics, with two candidates already facing possible jail time under the law.

"They are afraid of us," Thanathorn told the BBC. "They are afraid of change. They want tomorrow to be just like yesterday. They think dissolving our parties, banning our leaders from politics, would make us smaller. In fact, we are getting bigger."

Even if the party is allowed to form a government, significant constraints on their power will likely persist. This is precisely why constitutional reform is paramount to their agenda—to dilute or dismantle the extraordinary powers wielded by deeply conservative institutions like the constitutional court, which can unseat elected governments. Rival party Pheu Thai, having seen two of its prime ministers removed by the court, also supports this goal. However, the path to a new charter is fraught with obstacles and could take years, or be easily blocked.

"If Thailand was a functional democracy, none of this would have happened," observes Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. "We have regular elections, sometimes punctuated by military coups. But elections only determine the representatives in the lower house of parliament. They do not determine who governs. That is determined by elite networks, and unelected institutions which have played a veto role against the will of the voters." The People's Party's journey highlights that for genuine democratic change in Thailand,winning the electionis indeed only the initial step in a much longer and harder battle.