Opinion | Trump Has Changed America. Next Up, the World: Decoding His Global Impact

The Shifting Sands of Global Security: Beyond the Munich Speeches

Last weekend's Munich Security Conference, while filled with high-profile rhetoric about shared values and strategic cooperation, also played host to a quieter, yet intensely profit-driven, set of discussions. Over breakfast, a German official offered advice to a French defense contractor on navigating Berlin's military procurement landscape. At lunch, a senior executive from a major Asian arms manufacturer detailed his company’s competitive edge over European and American rivals. Throughout the crowded corridors of the Bayerischer Hof hotel, American defense contractors actively sought out new deals, their presence unmistakable.

A New Era for European Defense Spending

Europe is currently experiencing a significant military buildup, and the scramble for lucrative contracts is accelerating. This isn't merely talk; it's a race for substantial funds. Germany, for instance, intends to double its military budget to an astonishing $190 billion annually by 2029 alone. However, this rearmament narrative extends far beyond mere business transactions. A more profound transformation is underway, and regardless of the nuanced messaging—from Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 'good cop' routine at this year’s conference to Vice President JD Vance’s 'bad cop' approach last year—the underlying driver remains consistent: the world is fundamentally changing, largely propelled by Donald Trump.

Donald Trump: Architect of Domestic Disruption, Now Global Change

For many Americans, the extent of Mr. Trump's disruptive impact took time to fully grasp, but by now, its effects are starkly apparent. The United States of today is, in numerous ways, almost unrecognizable from a decade ago when he first took office. During his initial term, Mr. Trump skillfully harnessed genuine, long-standing national challenges—such as a dysfunctional immigration system, industrial decline, and widening economic disparity—problems that both liberal and conservative politicians had identified but failed to resolve. Yet, after his own attempts to fix them fell short, his second-term response has evolved into an increasingly overt assault on the rule of law, civil liberties, and the established checks on presidential power.

The Erosion of Liberal Democratic Values

Now, mirroring a common pattern for second-term presidents, Mr. Trump is focusing his formidable energy abroad. He articulates a determination to confront persistent international issues like China's trade practices, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and nations perceived as under-contributing to their own defense. The contours of Mr. Trump’s international disruption are already clear: a profound weakening of multilateral institutions, a noticeable drift away from the liberal democratic principles established post-World War II, and an embrace of a 'might-makes-right' philosophy in national security. These may seem like abstract concepts, but the changes they instigate are just as likely to reverberate through American communities as his domestic upheavals, demonstrating howTrump has changed America. Next up, the world.

Unintended Consequences: Realigning Alliances and Escalating Risks

Despite the myriad complaints about the Trump administration voiced at Munich—and there were many—even some Democrats privately conceded that certain positive outcomes have emerged from his foreign policy stance. After years of sustained effort, America stands to gain not only a more equitable distribution of NATO's operational costs through Europe's rearmament but also a more dynamic and innovative defense industry for the alliance, critical in an era of rapidly evolving warfare.

NATO Burden Sharing: A Silver Lining?

The ripple effects extend beyond Germany. Britain and France are also significantly increasing their military expenditures. Japan is bolstering its defense budget, and South Korea is following suit, even investing in new shipbuilding and other facilities within the United States. Ideally, this surge in activity would liberate the United States to channel resources into the cutting-edge weapons and capabilities necessary to deter Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific. However, as many Americans have come to realize, Mr. Trump’s proposed remedies for entrenched problems often prove more detrimental than the ailments themselves.

The Troubling Rise of Far-Right Influence

For instance, Mr. Trump’s overt support for far-right nationalists across Europe casts German rearmament in a particularly concerning light. A former European ambassador to NATO voiced deep apprehension about the prospect of a remilitarized Germany falling under the control of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, some of whose leaders have been accused of Nazi apologism and which currently polls strongly in some regions. This alarm over Germany's potential trajectory is, in part, a reason behind the renewed military buildups in France and Britain, as they consider what it might mean for their own security.

The Shadow of Nuclear Proliferation

Simultaneously, Mr. Trump’s unpredictable behavior is compelling non-nuclear nations to seek protective measures outside the American nuclear umbrella. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reportedly in preliminary discussions with Paris about potential protection from France’s nuclear arsenal. Poland and the Baltic States have already engaged in similar talks with France. Nuclear proliferation, long viewed as a nightmare scenario, is now openly discussed even in Japan and South Korea, albeit still notionally, as they consider the possibility of acquiring their own nuclear deterrents.

Fractured Trust: Impact on China and Iran Strategies

A growing sentiment across much of Europe suggests that America no longer fully aligns with either its values or its interests. While Mr. Rubio’s Munich speech struck a softer tone than Mr. Vance’s, a year of relentless attacks—including Mr. Trump’s audacious proposal to acquire Greenland—has significantly diminished the power of words. This deepening sense of alienation is already undermining America’s strategic objective of constraining China. On crucial issues like tariffs, national security, and digital security, European nations and Canada are increasingly forging their own paths with China and other Asian powers. The European Union and the vast Indo-Pacific trading bloc, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, are even engaging in early discussions about potential cooperation in response to Mr. Trump's tariff policies.

This erosion of trust could also critically affect the success or failure of Mr. Trump’s next major challenge: Iran. Speaking to reporters in Munich, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, highlighted numerous ways Europeans could assist America with Iran, yet are not—from intelligence sharing to pressuring Tehran for a deal, or even smuggling Starlink satellites to aid dissidents. “We really need our European partners, many of whom still maintain relations with Iran, to ratchet up pressure,” Mr. Warner emphasized.

Rebuilding Bridges: A Path Forward for American Diplomacy

There exists a more effective strategy for achieving America’s long-standing foreign policy goals. Tariffs, for example, could be strategically structured to reward nations that align their pressure campaigns against China with America’s. Rebuilding trust around core shared values such as human rights, the rule of law, and multilateral agreements would foster greater cooperation on intelligence sharing and collective pressure against adversaries. Furthermore, European rearmament would be significantly less destabilizing if the United States were not openly endorsing far-right political candidates across the continent.

The Immediate Horizon: Continued Disruption and Domestic Costs

As American politicians begin to formulate their foreign policy platforms for the 2026 and 2028 elections, it’s noteworthy that there is broad, bipartisan consensus on these very ideas, extending beyond Democrats to many Republicans. Now that Mr. Trump has demonstrably aimed to dismantle the international system, upcoming candidates have a critical opportunity to reconstruct it, safeguarding both American interests and values. However, this is not the immediate trajectory. Mr. Trump remains a potent force of disruption, and he’s only just beginning. It’s unclear if he has truly abandoned his ambition to acquire Greenland from Denmark. He might even prioritize domestic political gains over international stability, potentially compromising Taiwan’s security during an April meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Mr. Trump could also yield to hawkish figures, like Senator Lindsey Graham, who advocate strongly for regime change in Iran, easily undoing Mr. Rubio's moderate tone in Munich.

Achieving consensus on how to re-establish America’s alliances isn’t merely a political opportunity; it is an absolute necessity. These challenges are not confined to distant lands. Military rivalries among European powers drew the United States into two global conflicts in the last century, and Americans will undoubtedly feel the economic repercussions of confronting China in isolation. As our alliances weaken and instability proliferates, America faces an era of increased, rather than decreased, international entanglements. This reality may surprise those who anticipated Mr. Trump to be an 'isolationist.' Both his supporters and opponents must now begin to strategize on how to mitigate this damage and meticulously piece things back together.